Water AlliesTier 2
at KYD DTR Store Champion
decks
2
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
10-7-2
overall winrate
57.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.0%
avg ELO +7.8 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
60.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1178
· median 1178
· range 1106–1249
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1275
Q3 1419
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 37.3% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 67.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Fire Exia | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Suited | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.8% | +26.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
